Ray Dalio warns the economic world order is collapsing, and America may be headed into a ‘civil war.’ How to prepare
Moneywise
Sat, January 31, 2026
Lintao Zhang / Getty Images
In the wake of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is ringing a global fire alarm.
The short version? The old economic world order is gone, and it’s likely not coming back any time soon.
“Let’s not be naive, ok, and say: Oh, we’re breaking the rule-based system,” Dalio said in an interview with Fortune at the WEF. “It’s gone. It’s going.”
Dalio was referring to the current global balance of power between nations, which has hinged on relatively predictable U.S. foreign policy.
Since the start of 2025, under President Donald Trump’s administration, business has been anything but usual. April saw one of the largest dips in the S&P 500’s history, driven by U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs.
The rest of 2025 saw escalating rhetoric targeting long-standing allies such as Canada and Greenland — the latter of which was a flashpoint going into the WEF. In the months leading up to the forum, Trump publicly discussed the annexation of Greenland from Denmark, whether through economic or military force. This might be part of a push to access rare earth minerals trapped beneath the ice, according to CNBC.
But Dalio wasn’t just concerned about the implications of war: He was also following the money.
“There’s a line, a red line, that has to do with the military as it pertains to Greenland. And if there is a military move, it has capital war implications,” Dalio said in an interview with Bloomberg.
Essentially, wars suck up time and capital while eroding trust. Purchasing debt from a nation actively engaged in a war, for example, could be a bad bet, according to Dalio.
And this isn’t the first time Dalio has warned about a shaky grasp on the current global world order. In an interview on Leaders with Francine Lacqua, Dalio was confronted with a blunt question: “Could we be close to another world war?”
He didn’t hesitate. “We are in wars,” Dalio replied. “There is a financial money war, there's a technology war, there's geopolitical wars, and there are more military wars.”
Then came his more unsettling assessment: The U.S. itself isn’t immune.
“We have a civil war of some sort, which is developing in the United States and elsewhere, where there are irreconcilable differences,” Dalio said.
Here’s how things break down on the home front.
Mounting Division
Certainly, political opinion in America is sharply divided. The American Survey Center reported as of 2025 that 71% of Republicans were at least somewhat satisfied with the current state of affairs in the country, and only 12% of Democrats said the same. In 2024, 17% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats were satisfied. And yet, 61% of Americans across the political spectrum report dissatisfaction with the current administration and state of the nation.
With this in mind, Dalio’s bleak outlook may be more realistic.
It’s a stark warning — especially from someone who also cautioned earlier in the interview that “our power to hurt each other has never been greater.”
He outlined two paths the country could take.
The first, more hopeful scenario is one in which Americans “rise above it and realize that our common good is going to necessitate us dealing with it so that what works for most people is going to work.” But as he admitted, that may be “a little bit idealistic.”
The second is far bleaker: “I think that these conflicts will become tests of power by each side.”
If his warning has you on edge and wondering how to protect your wealth in turbulent times, it may be worth considering assets that can help weather a crisis.
Dalio’s go-to asset for ‘bad times’
Amid his dire forecasts, Dalio has repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification — and singled out one time-tested asset as a cornerstone of a resilient portfolio: gold.
“People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio,” he told CNBC earlier this year. “When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier.”
He doubled down on that view more recently at the Greenwich Economic Forum, calling gold a “very excellent diversifier in the portfolio.”
“If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective, you would probably have something like 15% of your portfolio in gold … because it is the one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down,” Dalio explained.
Test your mettle with gold
Long viewed as the ultimate safe haven, gold isn’t tied to any single country, currency or economy. It can’t be printed out of thin air like fiat money, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical conflicts like war, investors tend to pile in — driving up its value.
Gold is also on a historic bull run, climbing over 90% year-over-year and blowing past analyst expectations to an all-time high of over $5,000 per ounce as of late January.
If you want to test your mettle with gold, one way to invest that can also provide significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Thor Metals.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. As a result, this can make it an attractive option for those looking to potentially hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainties.
Warren Buffett’s advice on what to own in a war
Investing legend Warren Buffett has also offered clear money advice for politically volatile times.
In 2014 — the last time Russia invaded Ukraine — Buffett told CNBC that “the last thing you'd want to do is hold money during a war,” because in “virtually” every conflict he’s aware of, the value of money would go down. This is partly due to the effect that war tends to have on inflation as resources are redirected to the military.
So what does he recommend owning when the world is on edge?
“You might want to own a farm, you might want to own an apartment house, you might want to own securities,” Buffett said.
Indeed, real assets like apartment buildings have the potential to create returns through thick and thin. In fact, Buffett has repeatedly pointed to real estate as a prime example of a productive, income-generating asset.
In 2022, Buffett stated that if you offered him “1% of all the apartment houses in the country” for $25 billion, he would “write you a check.”
Real estate also offers a natural hedge against inflation — a point that aligns with Buffett’s warning about the erosion of money’s value during wartime. When inflation rises, property values often increase as well, reflecting the higher costs of materials, labor and land. At the same time, rental income tends to go up, providing landlords with a revenue stream that adjusts with inflation.
Of course, you don’t need billions — or even to buy an entire property — to invest in real estate. Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived offer an easier way to get exposure to this income-generating asset class.
Backed by world-class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of rental homes with as little as $100, all without the hassle of mowing lawns, fixing leaky faucets or handling difficult tenants.
The process is simple: Browse a curated selection of properties pre-vetted for their potential for long-term appreciation in value and income-generating power. Once you find a property you like, it’s as simple as selecting the number of shares you’d like to purchase and then sit back as you start receiving any positive rental income distributions from your investment.
There are also ways to take advantage of real estate without locking yourself into a silo — whether industrial or vacation rental. And this accessibility doesn’t necessarily mean sacrificing scale or professional management.
Private real estate funds can give investors access to large, professionally managed property portfolios that would typically be difficult to acquire individually, while offering diversification across properties and regional markets.
For instance, the Fundrise Flagship Fund is a $1.2 billion private real estate fund that lets you invest in an expertly crafted strategy without needing hundreds of thousands of dollars. With 4,700+ single-family homes and 2,500+ residential units, you can get direct exposure to institutional-style scale and diversification.
Even better, you don’t need to be an accredited investor to get started. All it takes is a $10 initial investment to begin exploring real estate today.
After you place your first investment, the Fundrise Flagship Fund will work to find and add new assets to your portfolio over time and send you transparent updates along the way. That way, you can scale up as much, or as little, as you’re comfortable with.
A finer alternative
There is another asset class that’s coveted by billionaires like Ray Dalio, Mark Cuban and others for its appreciation potential, resale value and the fact that it isn’t correlated with returns on the stock exchange or tied to the U.S.’s economic output. It’s also a globally recognized asset and looks good hanging on the wall of a gallery.
The asset in question? Art.
In 2022 — shortly after U.S. inflation hit a 40-year high — a collection of art owned by the late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen sold for $1.5 billion at Christie’s New York, making it the most valuable collection in auction history.
Investing in art was traditionally a privilege reserved for the ultra-wealthy, but now it’s available to all investors thanks to Masterworks — a platform for investing in shares of blue-chip artwork by renowned artists, including Pablo Picasso, Jean-Michel Basquiat and Banksy.
From their 23 exits so far, Masterworks investors have realized representative annualized net returns like +17.6%, +17.8% and +21.5% among assets held for longer than one year. Simply browse their portfolio of paintings and choose how many shares you’d like to buy. Masterworks will handle all the details, making high-end art investments both accessible and effortless.
