When Kevin Warsh takes over at the helm of the Federal Reserve, he will lower interest rates because Trump wants him to. Trump has been harassing Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, but Powell wouldn't have it. Now why would Trump want lower interest rates? Because when interest rates go down, bonds go up. So Trump and Warsh help one another: I appoint you in exchange for you lowering interest rates. Warsh is saying he does not have a deal with Trump. But would you believe another sold-out Trump goon?
Just before Warsh takes over, Trump has been buying bonds. When Warsh lowers interest rates, Trump makes a fortune.
The second article says that if Warsh lowers interest rates in this unusual environment, lower interest rates, while raising bond prices would crash the stock market. So not only are Trump and Warsh making a profit out of Warsh's appointment, they are gambling with a stock market crash.
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Trump has quietly bought up to $337 million in bonds — and his Fed pick Kevin Warsh could send their value soaring
Vawn Himmelsbach
Fri, May 1, 2026
Nathan Howard/Getty Images, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Unlike in his first term, President Trump has been quietly buying corporate and municipal bonds since he returned to the White House in 2025.
In March alone, Trump reportedly carried out 175 financial transactions, most of which were bonds issued by states, counties, school districts and public agencies, according to disclosures required by the Office of Government Ethics.
It's estimated that the total value of bond purchases in his portfolio is around $337 million — many of which are in sectors that could benefit from his policy decisions.
Trump also acquired Intel bonds after directing the federal government to acquire a 10% stake in the chipmaker, Reuters reports. And he purchased up to $2 million in Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery bonds shortly after the announcement of an $83 billion merger.
These purchases, while not illegal, have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest, though the White House has stated that these investments are managed by independent third-party financial institutions.
With Trump showing such a strong interest in bonds, should you, too?
A Federal Reserve regime change
Trump's pick for Federal Reserve chair, financier Kevin Warsh, is expected to take over from current chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends on May 15. And while Warsh was handpicked by Trump, Warsh said he didn't make any promises to get the job.
"The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, period," Warsh said when being questioned by the Senate Banking Committee. "Nor would I ever agree to do so if he had."
Since the start of his second term, Trump has berated Powell for not cutting interest rates more quickly. Doing so could help to boost economic activity, but it could also fuel inflation.
Warsh is considered hawkish, meaning he's in support of stricter monetary controls. But he's also become more open to cutting rates under specific conditions — like an AI boom that increases productivity.
As a long-time critic of the Fed's large balance sheet, Warsh has said he wants "regime change," which would include changing the way the central bank measures inflation — though he'd need internal support to do so. Warsh, however, will likely be under intense pressure from Trump to cut interest rates despite the crisis in Iran that's slowing growth and fueling inflation.
"Fed Chair nominee Warsh will probably be hamstrung delivering Trump the rate cuts the president wants because oil prices and inflation will remain higher than hoped for a long time," Rob Morgan, senior vice president and market strategist with Mosaic, told CNBC.
The Fed held interest rates steady in its latest policy decision, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% .
How this could impact the bond market
Higher inflation could lead to a Fed rate increase, which aims to slow consumer spending in an effort to combat inflation. This increases the cost of borrowing, raising the rate on mortgages, auto loans and even credit card APRs.
While the rate has been coming down since pandemic-era highs, the crisis in Iran has added uncertainty into the mix. Skyrocketing fuel prices and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz create upward pressure on inflation, which then puts pressure on central banks like the Fed to keep rates elevated.
Interest rates also directly impact the bond market
When you buy government bonds and hold them to maturity, you receive a regular stream of interest income (often referred to as a coupon). But returns tend to be lower than other types of investments because you're taking on a lower level of risk compared to corporate bonds or stocks.
Bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates, meaning they move in opposite directions. In other words, lower rates cause bond prices to rise, making existing bonds more valuable. So when rates fall, bondholders — including Trump — see capital gains. However, in this type of environment, new bonds are issued with lower coupon rates, so new investments may be less lucrative.
If the Fed were to keep lowering rates, it could potentially be a good time to lock in higher, longer-term coupon rates, but it's not certain that will happen with the ongoing crisis in Iran. And, considering the uncertainty around a potential Federal Reserve "regime change," investors are currently in a bit of a holding pattern.
Despite this uncertainty — and despite the fact that stocks typically offer higher long-term returns than bonds — there are other reasons to include bonds in your portfolio. For example, they provide regular income, liquidity, diversification and tax efficiency.
Bonds can also serve as a hedge against a potential stock market correction, but if inflation remains sticky or ticks upward, it could hinder bond price appreciation.
Some may perceive this uncertainty as a risk, while others could see it as an opportunity. To make sure your portfolio is meeting your needs, it could be worth sitting down with your financial advisor to discuss your options.
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The
Likelihood of a Stock Market Crash Under President Donald Trump Is
Rapidly Rising -- and There's One Undeniable Catalyst to Blame
Sean Williams,
The Motley Fool
In case you missed it, Wall Street history was made a little over one week ago. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and growth-stock-dominated Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) both soared to record-closing highs on April 24, with the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) one good day away from joining its peers.
Wall
Street's major stock indexes hitting new highs and delivering outsize
returns is nothing new under President Donald Trump. During his first
term, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite gained 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively.
Although the Dow or S&P 500 has finished higher in 26 of the
previous 33 presidential terms, annualized returns for these indexes
have been higher under Trump than under most other presidents.
While
several factors are fueling this rally (not all of which have Trump's
fingerprints on them), one undeniable catalyst is threatening to ruin
the party. One decision made by President Trump has shifted the puzzle
pieces enough to put the possibility of a stock market crash squarely on
the table.
Stocks have outperformed with Trump in the White House for five years (and counting)
But
before digging into the spark that could light this match, it's
imperative to understand why stocks have outperformed with Donald Trump
in the White House.
The
first thing to note is that not every upside catalyst is related to
President Trump or policies his administration has enacted. Arguably,
the premier growth driver for Wall Street is the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), which has been ongoing for years.
Empowering
software and systems with the tools to make split-second, autonomous
decisions is a potential game changer for most sectors and industries.
AI can revolutionize supply chains, production lines, and innovation,
and represents an addressable opportunity of more than $15 trillion by
2030, according to PwC analysts.
Additionally,
corporate earnings growth has consistently outpaced analysts'
expectations. To be fair, the bar tends to be set low, enabling public
companies to easily step over consensus profit forecasts. Nevertheless,
having most S&P 500 companies exceed expectations is a recipe for
stock market gains.
However, President Trump has played a role in fueling the Dow's, S&P 500's, and Nasdaq Composite's rise. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), signed into law in December 2017, permanently lowered the peak marginal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%.
The lowest peak corporate income tax rate since 1939 has allowed businesses to retain more of their earnings. While some companies have used this extra capital to hire, acquire, and reinvest in innovation, the most notable impact of the TCJA has been a significant uptick in share buybacks by S&P 500 companies. Research from The Motley Fool indicates that share repurchases reached an estimated all-time high of more than $1 trillion in 2025.
While upside catalysts do exist, a decision made by President Trump threatens to wipe out these gains.
Image source: Getty Images.
The ingredients for a stock market crash under Trump are firmly in place
Although Trump has overseen double-digit annualized stock returns during his time in the Oval Office, he's also presided over two crash events: the five-week COVID-19 crash in February-March 2020, and the "tariff tantrum" during the first week of April 2025. Short-lived elevator-down declines have become somewhat commonplace under Trump -- and the next one may be brewing.
A little over two months ago, on Feb. 28, Trump gave the order for the U.S. military, along with Israel, to commence attacks against Iran. Shortly after this conflict began, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels, disrupting the flow of 20 million barrels of liquid petroleum per day (roughly 20% of global demand).
Though there have been advances in ending the Iran war, including a two-week ceasefire that's been extended indefinitely by President Trump, as of this writing on April 25, the damage of the president's decision to attack Iran has already been done.
While wars are known to heighten uncertainty and can lead to the incalculable loss of life, their effects are felt far from the battlefield. The inflationary impact of the Iran war is the catalyst that can upend Trump's bull market.
US Inflation Rate data by YCharts.
Before the Iran war began, trailing 12-month (TTM) U.S. inflation was inching ever closer to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. In February, TTM inflation clocked in at 2.4% -- a level consistent with a healthy economy.
But thanks to the largest energy supply disruption in modern history, crude oil prices and energy expenses are soaring. In March, TTM inflation jumped 90 basis points to 3.3%. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Inflation Nowcasting tool, inflation is estimated to rise by another 26 basis points to 3.56% in April. Even if the Iran war ends soon, the inflationary effects of energy supply disruption should persist for several quarters.
Typically, a 116-basis-point, two-month increase in inflation wouldn't be a death knell for the stock market. But the stock market doesn't often enter a year at its second-priciest valuation over 155 years, based on the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings Ratio.
Wall
Street and investors have been looking for nothing short of multiple
interest rate cuts in 2026. These rate cuts were expected to support an
expensive stock market by fueling aggressive investments in AI data
centers.
With
Trump's decision leading to a meaningful increase in inflation, rate
cuts are effectively off the table. According to the Federal Reserve
Bank of Atlanta's Market Probability Tracker, there's a higher
probability of an interest rate hike by June 17 than a rate cut, as of April 23.
President
Trump's actions have put the ball firmly in the Federal Reserve's
court. If America's foremost financial institution alters its language
about inflation/rate hikes, or moves to raise the federal funds target
rate, a stock market crash may be the logical response on Wall Street.
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48% of retirees can't sustain their lifestyle, and Kevin Warsh's expected Fed rate cut could make it worse
Mike Crisolago
Fri, May 1, 2026
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Kevin Warsh came one step closer to becoming the next chair of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday after the Republican-majority Senate Banking Committee rubber-stamped his nomination, which was put forward by President Trump.
The former Fed governor, presidential economic advisor and Morgan Stanley executive has signalled his desire for "regime change" should he take over as Fed chair (1) — namely, managing inflation and employment while shrinking the Fed's balance sheet along with its "footprint in financial markets (2)."
Many also expect that he could move to cut interest rates (the first Fed rate cut since December) if he takes over when current chair Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15.
That latter expectation has raised concerns, however, given that Warsh appears to be a hawk who turned into a dove, once advocating for higher interest rates but now championing lower ones in a policy shift that more aligns with the wishes of the same president who attacked Powell multiple times for not lowering rates.
Though he insists that he'll be "an independent actor if confirmed," Warsh's shift on interest rates and his refusal to acknowledge that Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden earned him the moniker of Trump "sock puppet" from Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren (3).
And while a Fed shake-up concerns all Americans, one cohort in particular could see their financial fortunes shift dramatically: retirees.
How Fed changes could impact retirees
While Federal Reserve interest rate cuts can help lower borrowing costs, stimulate business activity and placate a president desperate to boost his poll numbers, retirees counting on income from investments aren't as bullish.
In January, 64% of retirees surveyed by Clever Real Estate said that the U.S. "faces a retirement crisis," with 48% reporting that they can't "financially sustain their current quality of life for the rest of their lives." Almost a quarter of retirees said that they can't sustain it for another year (4).
In a separate survey by retirement expert John Stevenson, 58% of retirees polled said "lower interest rates are detrimental to people who have saved responsibly" while 45% "fear inflation will outpace their income if rates fall and yields decline (5)."
An interest rate cut paired with the current 3.26% inflation (6) and the skyrocketing costs of energy and gasoline — as well as food, medical expenses and housing that remain up year-over-year (7) — would likely erode purchasing power for many retirees, worsen the affordability crisis and, broadly, prove concerns about stagflation correct.
Still, J. Sebastián Leguizamón, the director of Western Kentucky University's Center of Applied Economics, told AARP that the effects of a rate cut on retirees is "mixed and very portfolio-specific" and that "it's better to think in terms of trade-offs that depend on debt levels and how a retiree's assets are allocated (8)."
For example, they note that while those with money in CDs, savings or money-market funds will more likely see declining yields with a rate cut, those paying down mortgages, lines of credit or loans — or with a stock-heavy portfolio — could get a boost.
The question of Warsh and his ability to maintain Fed independence also looms large for retirees, especially those with little savings. History shows that world leaders meddling in the independence of their nation's central bank often results in soaring inflation and even currency collapse (9). In the U.S., for example, after Trump attacked Powell publicly last April, the value of the U.S. dollar, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq all dropped (10).
How retirees can help protect their pocketbooks and portfolios
For retirees worried about the uncertainty ahead, it's a good idea to consider adjusting your personal budget to increase savings while also taking advantage of as many income streams as possible. A rate cut could also provide an opportunity to refinance or consolidate higher-interest debts (11).
Other recommendations include securing higher interest rates for some investments before any potential rate cut (12), and even considering a laddered portfolio of bonds that can weather future headwinds (13). High-yield bonds, in particular, can specifically protect against lowered interest rates and generate better returns, albeit with more risk attached (14).
The Kentucky-based Dupree Financial Group specifically suggests that retirees concentrate on "common sense investments in recognizable companies" and "dividend-focused strategies," including "favoring income-producing assets over growth speculation (15)."
And, of course, keeping an emergency fund in cash or liquid assets is always advised as a pivotal line of defense in tough financial times.
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Forbes (1),(13); The New York Times (2); The Washington Post (3); Clever Real Estate (4); John Stevenson (5); U.S. Joint Economic Committee (6); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (7); AARP (8); Capital Group (9); BBC (10); Equifax (11),(14); Gainbridge (12); Dupree Financial Group (15)
This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: 48% of retirees can't sustain their lifestyle — and Kevin Warsh's expected Fed rate cut could make it worse
