Nate Silver's New Election Model Makes Democrats Favorites to Flip Senate—Prediction Markets Aren't so Sure
Daragh Thomas
Mon, August 17, 2026
Nate Silver's new midterm model launched Tuesday with a striking call: Democrats are 57.3% favorites to win the Senate, a chamber where they need a net gain of four seats against a 53-47 Republican majority.
Prediction market traders are more cautious. Polymarket gives Democrats a 53% chance as of Wednesday morning.
On the House, there is little argument. Silver's model gives Democrats an 87% chance, and Polymarket traders sit at 88%.
The question may no longer be whether 2026 looks bad for Republicans. It's whether President Donald Trump's political environment has deteriorated enough to overwhelm a Senate map that should favor them.
The model, called FLIPR, blends polling, fundamentals such as fundraising and incumbency, and expert race ratings across roughly 40,000 simulations.
Silver's model sees a national environment strong enough for Democrats to compete well beyond the usual battlegrounds.
Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine are firmly in play, while races in traditionally red states such as Texas, Iowa and Alaska have also become competitive. Democrats need four net pickups to win the Senate.
Trump's Problems Are Becoming GOP Senate Problems
Silver puts Trump's approval at roughly 38%, citing an unpopular war in the Middle East, anxiety over spiking gas prices and voter fatigue with an 80-year-old lame-duck president and says only 22% of Americans strongly approve of his performance, according to the model's data.
The unpopular Iran war and higher energy costs have added to Trump's problems, while tariffs have kept affordability concerns front and center.
Trump himself is not on the ballot in November. Republican Senate candidates are, and they have to run on the terrain his presidency created.
Texas shows how far the map has shifted. Trump-backed Ken Paxton, who has been plagued by scandals, now faces Democrat James Talarico. Polymarket gives Talarico a slight edge, at 52%.
Silver puts Trump's approval at roughly 38%, citing an unpopular war in the Middle East, anxiety over spiking gas prices and voter fatigue with an 80-year-old lame-duck president and says only 22% of Americans strongly approve of his performance, according to the model's data.
The unpopular Iran war and higher energy costs have added to Trump's problems, while tariffs have kept affordability concerns front and center.
Trump himself is not on the ballot in November. Republican Senate candidates are, and they have to run on the terrain his presidency created.
Texas shows how far the map has shifted. Trump-backed Ken Paxton, who has been plagued by scandals, now faces Democrat James Talarico. Polymarket gives Talarico a slight edge, at 52%.
If Silver Is Right, Trump's Final Two Years Change Completely
If Democrats win both chambers, Trump's final two years could look very different: legislation would be far harder to pass, Democrats would control congressional investigations and subpoena power, and the Senate could block his judges and senior nominees.
Silver now gives Democrats a slight edge to win the Senate. Prediction-market traders remain more cautious, making control of the chamber one of the biggest unresolved questions of the midterms.
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CNN Data Guru Reveals Trump Is Wildly Unpopular on Gas Prices
Cameron Adams
Mon, August 17, 2026
CNN data guru Harry Enten has exposed the critical issue causing an unprecedented level of "hatred" of President Donald Trump among Americans.
Enten made the claims on CNN on Sunday as gas prices hit a national average of $4.07 a gallon, the highest August price on record, according to AAA.
The price of gas is rising amid continued uncertainty around access to the Strait of Hormuz, a direct result of Trump's war with Iran. Gas prices have hit a new high in August.
Enten said August's record national average means Americans "can't catch a break," on gas prices.
"The American people very much dislike, dare I say, President Trump when it comes to gas prices," Enten said, noting it was "not a huge surprise" given the soaring cost of fuel.
"But it's to a historic degree, the hatred for President Trump on gas prices," Enten stated.
The analyst then revealed data to back up his claims of Trump's unprecedented unpopularity in regard to the critical cost of living issue.
Using his own "Enten's Aggregate" of polling data, he calculated Trump's public disapproval on gas prices at 79 percent this year, compared to 75 percent for President George W. Bush in 2006, the year in which the Lebanon war led to a temporary surge in global crude oil and U.S. gas prices.
President Joe Biden had a 72 percent disapproval on gas prices in 2022, a year where prices fluctuated due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and President Barack Obama on 68 percent in 2011, after Arab Spring protests caused oil prices to rise globally.
Trump is wildly unpopular due to gas prices.
Enten said Trump's high disapproval rating translates to around four in five Americans being unhappy with the job he is doing on gas prices, topping Bush, Obama and Biden's highest levels of dissatisfaction over the issue.
"So Donald Trump is breaking records in the ways that you, simply put, do not want to be breaking records when it comes to gas prices and how Americans view the job that he is doing," Enten said.
Enten then attempted to explain Trump's "historically high disapproval rating" on gas prices, noting "you can't reach 79 percent just by Democrats disliking the job that you're doing, or dare I say it, hating it."
CNN data guru Harry Enten finds disapproval of Trump crosses party lines.
The analyst found the "hatred" for Trump on gas crossed party lines, pointing to a "rare trifecta" of bipartisan dissatisfaction with the president uniting voters.
Enten noted that 96 percent of Democrats disapproved of Trump, and 85 percent of independents, but also 52 percent of Republicans, with Enten citing data from a CNN/SSRS poll conducted taken last month.
"That tried and true Republican base that has stuck with Donald Trump through thick and thin, even... a majority of them, 52 percent, disapprove of the job that President Trump is doing on gas prices."
Enten noted any Republican running in the upcoming midterm elections "you very much want to be running away from President Trump at least on...how Americans view him on gas prices."
To understand why the numbers were so low, Enten looked at Trump's disapproval by income levels.
He found the disapproval from those making less than $50,000 a year was driving Trump's slumping popularity over gas, again citing the CNN/SSRS poll from July.
While the number was highest with Democrats on 93 percent and independent voters on 90 percent, Enten pointed that the overall disapproval level was 86 percent.
"You can't get 86 percent of Americans or even a subgroup of Americans who are not a partisan subgroup to agree on anything," Enten said. "But they do when it comes to gas prices."
He also pointed out that 66 percent of Republicans making under $50,000 a year also disapproving of Trump's gas prices was "very unlucky indeed" for the president.
"I'm sometimes a little hesitant to make predictions," Enten said. "But if these numbers hold for the midterm elections... I really don't understand how it's not going to be a very good night for Democrats indeed."
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
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