Trump is so Desperate he's Taking Huge Risks

Trump is showing signs that he is throwing a suicidal gauntlet. He signed an American capitulation in his Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran because, as he himself declared, he didn't want to be another Herbert Hoover with the legacy of a major economic depression. He also more recently said he didn't want to be another Jimmy Carter with a failed military venture against Iran.

Both of these statements reflect Trump's despair at having no visibility on what to do as he faces the competing trajectories of a failed war in Iran and a looming disaster in the November midterms. The American population is against the war, but more dangerously for Trump, it is very unpopular with his herd-of-moron base.

The more Trump escalates the war with Iran, the more risks he takes on the economy and on the elections. He also risks losing the support of his Arab Gulf Girls who are increasingly targets of Iranian retaliations. A sense of panic has now seized these "allies" because Iran is not only targeting the US bases there (from which US strikes are launched against Iran), it is beginning to target key infrastructure facilities (e.g. desalination plants).

But if Trumps backs down on Iran to rescue the economy (which he attempted with the MoU), he would be admitting defeat which is also nefarious for the Republican chances at the midterms and for his legacy.

Cornered between two negative options, it appears Trump is leaning to risk it all, which explains his resumption of strikes against Iran which has taken control of the war via its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At the very least, and absent any direct attempt at toppling an Iranian regime that Netanyahu falsely told him would be a low hanging fruit, Trump is no longer thinking about ensuring a Republican victory in November and is more focused on saving his own legacy as a "strong" president who doesn't back down.

Someone said yesterday that Trump is like a 2-year old who lost his toy. His tantrum indicates he is willing to consider an election disaster as a foregone liability out of the impasse, since a continuation of the war closer to Election Day will reignite the war's inflationary impact on fuel and living costs and will meet with disgruntled MAGA voters whom he promised not to get into "forever wars overseas".

Many experts blame Trump's cowardice for signing a rushed MoU in a reflexive move to avoid economic recession and possibly depression, another sign that the war was launched without any plausible strategy to ensuring some success.

No one in the administration seems to be considering the "nuclear" option of a land invasion of Iran (for example, Kharg Island) as way out of the impasse, because the risks there are even greater of more escalation and loss of life.

Meanwhile, the Iranians themselves seem to have also reached their penultimate level of despair. Their increasingly menacing threats against the US Arab Gulf allies (and other Arab countries like Jordan) could unravel decades of cementing western (and American in particular) influence over the region. At some point, the shimmer and glimmer of the small emirates might begin to fade as the thousands of foreign expatriates who actually make the Gulf economies tick are beginning to leave, fearing for their lives and their livelihoods.