Aging population, pruning immigrants, young people seeking "meaning" in their lives, automatization and robotization, tariff-enabled regression in trade, politization and lack of independence of the Federal Reserve... are all presaging troubles ahead for the US economy.
But none of these are of concern to the idiot-in-chief who manages the country like a convenience store operator: He just wants to "make money" by cutting and de-funding, deporting and firing, taxing and tariffing, depleting the coffers to make his billionaire friends and family even wealthier.... In other words, the moron is castrating the US economy away from an eventual recovery.
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Top analyst says the next 5 years could see ‘no growth in workers at all’ and sends a warning about the fate of the U.S. economy
Nick Lichtenberg
Updated Tue, August 5, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may face major challenges fighting inflation going forward. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
As the U.S. labor market shows clear signs of stalling, one of Wall Street’s leading strategists is sounding a sharp warning: With America’s workforce in a demographic crunch and historic changes in immigration policy underway, it is “quite possible that the next five years will see no growth in workers at all.”
The implications, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, are profound for the Federal Reserve and for investors—chief among them, the need for exceptional caution before lowering interest rates.
Kelly used his regular “Notes on the Week Ahead” research note to survey the implications—perhaps assess the damage—of Friday’s shocking jobs report, which revised downward job creation in May and June by 258,000 jobs. Furthermore, employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, well below the 110,000 consensus estimate. This left the average monthly increase for the past quarter at a paltry 35,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, as both employment numbers and labor force participation slipped further.
Kelly also highlighted signs of tightness in the labor market, namely the decline in the labor participation rate from 62.65% in July 2024 to 62.22% in July 2025. That translates to almost 1.2 million fewer people ages 16 and over who are working or actively looking for a job.
He attributed about half this decline to Americans aging into retirement, but noted the participation rate has also fallen among those ages 18 to 54.
Kelly commented on these signs of labor tightness as pivotal context for the wider question of the labor supply in the economy, with long-running trends implying that the Federal Reserve and embattled Chair Jerome Powell will face major challenges fighting inflation going forward—meaning ever-slimmer chances of the all important rate cut the market wants so much.
The worker problem in the economy
The aging population and declining labor participation also speak to a deeper, structural challenge that will persist well into the future.
According to Census projections, he noted the working-age population will actually contract in coming years without immigration returning to previous levels.
Kelly highlights the Census prediction that the population ages 18 to 64 would actually fall by over 300,000 people in the year ending July 2026, and continue to fall at roughly that pace through 2030. He notes that the retirement wave and recent changes to major immigration programs are further sapping labor supply, reducing potential growth.
Fed’s dilemma: inflation, growth, and political pressure
This squeeze comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is under immense political pressure to lower interest rates, with President Trump and his allies calling for easier money to offset the effects of new tariffs and support flagging markets.
Yet Kelly argues the central bank must tread carefully, as cutting rates into a structurally tight labor market risks spurring wage and price inflation rather than accelerating economic growth.
He observed that U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.1% per year since the beginning of the 21st century, largely driven by a 0.8% annual increase in the workforce.
“Starting from a point of roughly full employment, given the continued retirement of the baby boom and considering the possibility that deportations and voluntary departures of immigrants entirely offset new immigration in the next few years, it is quite possible that the next five years will see no growth in workers at all,” he added.
If this happens, the economy will grow more slowly, Kelly predicted, “but will only be capable of growing more slowly without igniting higher inflation.”
For the Fed, the message is clear, he adds: Be extremely cautious about any rate cuts. For investors, it’s a warning to temper expectations for rapid economic gains or a sustained bull market driven by easy money. In other words, American “exceptionalism” isn’t a given, going forward.
Investors, Kelly said, “should no longer bet broadly on a strongly rising U.S. economic tide or lower interest rates.”
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
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Mo Gawdat, who left Google X as its chief business officer in 2018 and has become a popular author and public speaker, painted a grim picture of widespread job losses, economic inequality and social chaos from the AI revolution.
“The next 15 years will be hell before we get to heaven,” Gawdat told British entrepreneur Steven Bartlett on his “Diary of a CEO” podcast on Monday.
Mo Gawdat, a former Google executive, warns that AI could trigger over a decade of upheaval, wiping out white-collar jobs and fueling social unrest. YouTube / The Diary Of A CEO [Note: Mo is short for Mohammed. Many Muslims hide their religious affiliation by adotping "western-sounding" names]
Gawdat, 58, pointed to his own startup, Emma.love, which builds emotional and relationship-focused artificial intelligence. It is run by three people.
“That startup would have been 350 developers in the past,” he told Bartlett in the interview, first reported by Business Insider.
“As a matter of fact, podcaster is going to be replaced.”
Gawdat specifically warned that “the end of white-collar work” will begin by the late 2020s, representing a fundamental shift in how society operates.
Unlike previous technological revolutions that primarily affected manual labor, he argues this wave of automation will target educated professionals and middle-class workers who form the backbone of modern economies.
The Egyptian-born tech whiz, who was a millionaire by age 29, believes this massive displacement will create dangerous levels of economic inequality.
Without proper government oversight, AI technology will channel unprecedented wealth and influence to those who own or control these systems, while leaving millions of workers struggling to find their place in the new economy, according to Gawdat.
Beyond economic concerns, Gawdat anticipates serious social consequences from this rapid transformation.
Gawdat says rapid advances in AI technology will soon threaten even highly skilled professions once thought immune from automation. Nina Lawrenson/peopleimages.com – stock.adobe.com
Gawdat said AI will trigger significant “social unrest” as people grapple with losing their livelihoods and sense of purpose — resulting in rising rates of mental health problems, increased loneliness and deepening social divisions.
“Unless you’re in the top 0.1%, you’re a peasant,” Gawdat said. “There is no middle class.” Gawdat said that it is incumbent on governments, individuals and businesses to take proactive measures such as the adoption of universal basic income to help people navigate the transition.
“We are headed into a short-term dystopia, but we can still decide what comes after that,” Gawdat told the podcast, emphasizing that the future remains malleable based on choices society makes today.
He argued that outcomes will depend heavily on decisions regarding regulation, equitable access to technology, and what he calls the “moral programming” of AI algorithms.
“Our last hurrah as a species could be how we adapt, re-imagine, and humanize this new world,” Gawdat said.
Gawdat’s predictions about mass AI-driven disruption are increasingly backed by mainstream economic data and analysis.
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, has warned of a “white-collar bloodbath.” AP
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned of a “white-collar bloodbath,” predicting that up to half of all entry-level office jobs could vanish within five years.
The World Economic Forum says 40% of global employers expect to reduce staff due to AI, and Harvard researchers estimate that 35% of white-collar tasks are now automatable.
Meanwhile, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that over 27,000 job cuts since 2023 have been directly attributed to AI, with tens of thousands more expected.
Goldman Sachs and McKinsey project a multi-trillion-dollar boost to global GDP from AI, but the IMF cautions that these gains may worsen inequality without targeted policy responses.
Analysts from MIT and PwC echo Gawdat’s fears of wage collapse, wealth concentration, and social unrest — unless governments act swiftly to manage the transition.
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