Iran cannot muster the hi-tech wizardry of USrael, but it has quantity. Iran beats USrael in fighter jets, tanks, manpower, etc... But assuming things don't go well for the Iranian theocracy, it might go back to its cellars and discover aging wines that made it what it became.
Iran could strike US bases in the Gulf and draw the US into the conflict. The US can of course strike back and invade Iran with "Shock and Awe" with results similar to the invasion of Iraq: Thousands of US soldiers killed and maimed and no fundamental change in Iraq other than Shiite warlords now in control in lieu of the Sunni warlords that once were. Replacing the mullahs and the ayatollahs in Iran is no guarantee of a friendlier relation between the coup-plotting, oil-stealing Americans and a secular-led Iran.
The US will have only Benjamin Netanyahu to blame for dragging it into a war that Trumps' morons, surprisingly, do not want even if injected with the stale adrenaline of stupid patriotism.
In Afghanistan, same, even worse, outcome, despite massive international assistance to the US, assistance that would not be available these days because, thanks to Trump's filth, the US has no friends left.
Iran could strike the navigation lanes through the Strait of Hormuz and paralyze the world's economy. 30% of oil and gas for international markets have to go through the Strait.
Iran can also ferret through its attic for its first weapon with which it drove the US and the West out of Lebanon in the 1980s and sowed havoc through Europe during the 1980s: Terrorism with bombings, kidnappings, assassinations, etc.
I do not understand why Trump withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA agreement with the international community in which Iran agreed to be inspected with a massive rectal exam of its nuclear capabilities. He just wanted to show he's a tough guy and a faithful obedient slave to Benjamin Netanyahu.
What "new" agreement did Trump hope to achieve with Iran that would be better than the 2015 JCPOA? None. His recent "negotiations" with Iran were a facade, a pony show. Deep down, Trump has okayed Israel's attack on Iran. After giving Iran 60 days to reach an agreement, Trump proudly announced that Israel was attacking Iran on exactly the 61st day, all the while lying through the nose that "the US has nothing to do with Israel's attack". Yeah, sure. no wonder "USrael" is the hybrid US-Israel name of the Jewish colony in Palestine. USrael is the American foothold in the Near East. And USrael's army is the American militia in the Near East.
USrael says Iran poses an existential threat to it. Iran says that USrael is an existential threat to it. Any one of the two parties can resort to horrific means if cornered. Iran could go back to full-fledged anti-western terrorism across the planet, and USrael could use its nuclear "Samson option".
If one considers all the aspects surrounding the USrael question, two constants remain solid:
- USrael is a deadend. Even if peace somehow manages to prevail despite the genocide against Palestinians, USrael will never survive surrounded by an Arab-Muslim region with a population 100 times that of its own. Like the Christian Crusades who, a thousand years ago, also came to Palestine to "take back Christian land", USrael is bound to disappear sooner or later, even if this takes several hundreds years. The Crusaders all in all lasted about 300 years in the region before being evicted by the Arab-Muslim armies.
- You might put forth the "quality" argument in favor of USrael, but the cost of keeping a dead man alive with massive technological prowess is steep: USrael's answer is high-tech violence. But the more it uses violence to keep breathing, the less likely it will ever find peace. If the future is so bleak, what is the point of using Bronze Age religious garbage to sustain a colonial graft entreprise in a highly allergenic environment? Perhaps, the Yahweh-crazy Jewish barbarian settlers should reconsider their "homeland" because Netanyhau does not seem to fit the specificiations of their mighty warmongering Messiah who, honestly speaking, is never going to show up, scientifically and rationally speaking. Europe is still a bit antisemitic, but nothing like the Europe of 100 years ago: The European settlers of Palestine could simply go back home to their East European steppes where they will be much better treated than by the new-and-improved Europe than by 1930s Fascist Europe, and definitely much better treated than by their own Palestinian and surrounding Arab victims.
It takes courage to admit to a failure. More violence will never address the failure. It exacerbates it.
Iran is only one of USrael's enemies. Even the Gulf kingdoms and emirates who have signed a peace agreement are fundamentally still opposed to USrael. Autocratic governments can sign treaties under duress of political pressure, scare tactics and enticement, but the population is not on board. A regime change in the Gulf countries could unravel and send Abraham back to Ur. Jordan (1994) and Egypt (1979) have signed peace treaties with USrael, but there is not a single manifestation of peace in the relations. Only a few convenient economic exchanges. But there is no meat to the beef of treaty-bound Arab-Israeli relations.
If there is to be any hope for a serious resolution, the Palestinians have to accept the fait accompli of a foreign rapist of their land. Difficult but envisageable IF - and only IF - the USraeli East European barbarian settlers in turn accept the indigenous Palestinians' thirst for freedom and dignity, whatever form that might take. But to keep the brutality, the genocide, the dehumanization, the ill-treatment, the abuse.... as the default platform for "peacemaking" has not worked and will never work.
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