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Prediction Markets Forecast Trump’s Worst Nightmare
Vic Verbalaitis
Tue, November 3, 2026
President Donald Trump is set to face a crushing humiliation on Tuesday if the prediction markets' forecasts prove true.
Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket overwhelmingly expect Democrats to sweep all seven key Senate races in Tuesday's midterm elections.
At the time of writing, Texas Democratic nominee James Talarico boasted a 73 percent chance of winning against the scandal-ridden Ken Paxton, according to bettors on Kalshi, who poured a staggering $73 million into the market. Polymarket bettors felt similarly, giving the Democratic state rep a 73 percent chance also.
Talarico has been turning heads with an impressive campaign in ruby-red Texas. / Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed had an even more commanding lead against his opponent, Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed has a 78 percent chance of winning the vote on Polymarket and stood at 77 percent on Kalshi.
Kansas' Adam Hamilton and Maine's Troy Jackson also held significant leads over their Republican adversaries, having a 63 percent chance and a 72 percent chance of winning on Polymarket and a 64 percent chance on Kalshi.
Sherrod Brown in Ohio held an impressive lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, with a 70 percent chance to win on Kalshi and 71 percent chance on Polymarket.
Iowa's Josh Turek, however, held a much narrower edge over Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson, leading by only about a few points on both markets.
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola also led her Republican opponent Dan Sullivan with a victory chance of 71 percent on Polymarket and 70 percent on Kalshi.
The Daily Beast has reached out to the White House for comment on the Senate race odds.
More generally, Kalshi traders have poured over $100 million into a market predicting a 73 percent chance of a Democratic sweep, where the party gains control of both congressional chambers. At the time of writing, 60 percent of traders projected that Democrats would hold more than 52 Senate seats after the election.
Trump, 80, seems to have accepted that a blue wave is likely inevitable in Tuesday's midterms.
Trump and the GOP are likely facing a midterm disaster. / Umit Bektas / REUTERS
"For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot," he said during a speech in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday.
The president's abysmal approval rating, which has dropped as low as 32 percent, likely has much to do with the impending blue tsunami.
Trump's unpopular war with Iran has caused global gas prices to skyrocket, impacting Americans at the pump. Meanwhile, his flippant tariffs have made everyday goods more expensive.
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Prediction Markets Forecast Trump’s Worst Nightmare
Vic Verbalaitis
Tue, November 3, 2026
President Donald Trump is set to face a crushing humiliation on Tuesday if the prediction markets' forecasts prove true.
Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket overwhelmingly expect Democrats to sweep all seven key Senate races in Tuesday's midterm elections.
At the time of writing, Texas Democratic nominee James Talarico boasted a 73 percent chance of winning against the scandal-ridden Ken Paxton, according to bettors on Kalshi, who poured a staggering $73 million into the market. Polymarket bettors felt similarly, giving the Democratic state rep a 73 percent chance also.
Talarico has been turning heads with an impressive campaign in ruby-red Texas. / Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed had an even more commanding lead against his opponent, Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed has a 78 percent chance of winning the vote on Polymarket and stood at 77 percent on Kalshi.
Kansas' Adam Hamilton and Maine's Troy Jackson also held significant leads over their Republican adversaries, having a 63 percent chance and a 72 percent chance of winning on Polymarket and a 64 percent chance on Kalshi.
Sherrod Brown in Ohio held an impressive lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, with a 70 percent chance to win on Kalshi and 71 percent chance on Polymarket.
Iowa's Josh Turek, however, held a much narrower edge over Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson, leading by only about a few points on both markets.
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola also led her Republican opponent Dan Sullivan with a victory chance of 71 percent on Polymarket and 70 percent on Kalshi.
The Daily Beast has reached out to the White House for comment on the Senate race odds.
More generally, Kalshi traders have poured over $100 million into a market predicting a 73 percent chance of a Democratic sweep, where the party gains control of both congressional chambers. At the time of writing, 60 percent of traders projected that Democrats would hold more than 52 Senate seats after the election.
Trump, 80, seems to have accepted that a blue wave is likely inevitable in Tuesday's midterms.
Trump and the GOP are likely facing a midterm disaster. / Umit Bektas / REUTERS
"For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot," he said during a speech in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday.
The president's abysmal approval rating, which has dropped as low as 32 percent, likely has much to do with the impending blue tsunami.
Trump's unpopular war with Iran has caused global gas prices to skyrocket, impacting Americans at the pump. Meanwhile, his flippant tariffs have made everyday goods more expensive.
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