What if Netanyahu....?

What if right-wing extremist Benyamin Netanyahu walks out of the Maritime Border Agreement between Israel and Lebanon? In his campaign, he has already indicated he's ready to do so, citing his opposition to the Oslo Agreement with the PLO as a precedent. 

With a coalition government between Netanyahu's Likud and the radical Jewish supremacist groups, Jewish Power bloc, Shas and United Torah Judaism, the stakes could not be higher on many domestic issues (mainly the future of the Palestinians under occupation), as well as regional issues (Iran's nuclear program). These ultra-religious right-wingers do in fact call for the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of all Palestinians from their ancestral lands and the annexation of all Palestinian territories, which even "moderate" left-wing Israelis conveniently forget when reminded that the entire construct of Israel was the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of millions of Palestinians from their lands in the 1930s-1940s.  No one in the West, especially the former European Nazis in France, Germany, Italy etc. dares criticize such mass-murderous criminal Israeli plans: The Europeans are crushed into submission by their guilt over the Holocaust and by the constant blackmailing by Zionists of labeling them anti-semites if they merely give friendly advice, let alone criticize Israel. There is no deeper fear and cowering by Europeans than in the face of the accusation of anti-semitism.

Netanyahu adores Donald Trump whom he finds to be the perfect dumb American president to be manipulated into moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel's annexation of the Golan, supporting expansion of Jewish terrorist settlements in Palestine, etc. Meanwhile, next week's midterm elections in the US could deliver a Republican majority in the Congress, which would weaken Joe Biden's presidency. The equilibrium in US-Israel relations that was restored to some normality by the eviction of Trump from the White House could swing back in favor of radical right-wing policies.

During his campaign, Netanyahu has denounced Yair Lapid's signing of the maritime border agreement with Lebanon. But will he go so far as to withdraw from it, and risk rising tensions and war with Hezbollah? (see: https://lebanoniznogood.blogspot.com/2022/10/maritime-border-agreement-with-israel.html)

Certainly, the Iranian regime behind Hezbollah has been weakened by the ongoing popular uprising against it, and if the trend continues, it might embolden an extremist radical right-wing Israeli government to take risks such as withdrawing from the Lebanon-Israel maritime agreement and waging war with Hezbollah, and perhaps even striking Iran's nuclear facilities. The negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program have all but stalled, and a deal to resurrect the JCPOA is going nowhere. 

During campaigns, candidates tend to raise their rhetoric beyond what they realistically can deliver. So if Netanyahu inches a bit closer to the center on some issues when in power, such as maintaining Israel's adherence to the maritime agreement which is a source of revenue for the country, he might have to deliver to his Jewish terrorist coalition partners on other issues, such as expanding Jewish settlements and further terrorizing the Palestinian population. The gas-thirsty Europeans will naturally turn a blind eye to such crimes against humanity as long as gas is flowing from Israel to Europe.

Therefore, on the whole all indicators point to stability on the Lebanese-Israeli front, even with a right wing extremist Netanyahu government. The only wild card in the equation is the future of the Iranian regime. If cornered by its own people, by the international sanctions, and by a threat to its nuclear facilities, the regime of the Mullahs might lash out against Saudi oil facilities (as it did a few years ago, without any reaction from Donald Trump's administration) or against Israel's gas platforms near the Lebanese border through its Hezbollah proxy. Indeed, such a threat to teetering international oil and gas supplies is probably Iran's master card short of a nuclear bomb.