On Nov. 21 of this year, I concluded my post "Zebran Basij: Purposeless scheming" [See: https://lebanoniznogood.blogspot.com/2022/11/zebran-basij-purposeless-scheming.html] with the following:
""Without Michel Aoun's residual aura in his watermark, Basij will likely keep flailing about to remain relevant. He knows that his only salvation can come from one specific near-suicidal act: Divorce Hezbollah. And fast.""
Back in 2007, I also wrote a piece entitled "FPM-Hezbollah: Divorce for Irreconcilable Differences".[See: https://middle-east-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/05/fpm-hezbollah-divorce-for.html]
Today in late 2022, the 2006 "mariage de raison" (known as the Memorandum of Understanding or the Mar Mikhail Agreement) between the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM; a Christian Fascist party) and the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah militia of the Iranian theocracy has taken some time to falter and make my prediction a reality. But the elements of a mismatch were obvious from the start. Yet the two spouses maintained their matrimonial bonds against all odds, for one simple reason: the Muslim Fundamentalist Hezbollah needed a Christian loin cloth to hide its unmentionables and appear as a "moderate" by allying itself with a Christian party, while Zebran Basij, the autocratic head of the FPM, needed the Shiites to avenge his father-in-law Michel Aoun's demise that was orchestrated by the Sunnis in collusion with Saudi Arabia, Syria and the US back in 1989.
In the Faustian deal between the two Fascist parties, the FPM conceded to Hezbollah a freedom of terrorist action on Lebanese soil and a free rein in "liberating" a supposedly Israeli-occupied tiny wasteland in the south (which has been Hezbollah's eternal pretext for violating all national and international laws, and giving Israel the justification for destroying Lebanon's infrastructure in July 2006). For its part, Hezbollah promised to do all it could to bring Michel Aoun to the presidency.
The deal in effect seemed to work: Aoun was forced into the presidential seat in 2016 after a 2.5-year blockage of Parliament by both Hezbollah and the FPM, while Hezbollah engaged in a series of assassinations and bombings against all its domestic opponents (journalists, politicians, activists, etc.) from circa 2005 to date. The most substantial provision of the marriage contract that was never implemented, namely the liberation of the Shebaa Farms wasteland from Israeli occupation, never happened. In fact, since the July 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the latter seems to have forgotten its grandiose ambitions of not only liberating the Lebanese south from Israeli occupation, but also liberating Jerusalem and driving the Jews into the sea: Not one bullet has been fired by Hezbollah against Israeli soil since July 2006. I wonder what kind of "resistance" is this that takes a 16-year-long vacation.
But even the most reasonable marriages of convenience end up in fights over mundane reasons like cheating, treason, betrayal, money and so forth. Nowadays, as the election of a president by Parliament is again stalled (for the past 8 weeks) by a joint Hezbollah-FPM blockage of quorum, the hens have come to roost for Mr. Faust: Zebran Basij is upset at his turbaned bearded husband, one Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. For 16 years, Basij has allowed Hassan to sodomize the entire country ad libitum, in exchange for bringing Aoun to the presidency. But the deal did NOT include bringing Mr. Basij himself to the presidency after the senile Aoun was gone. At least, not that we know of.
Instead, Hassan has found a new lover in the person of one Sleiman Frangiyeh, a vassal puppet of Syria's Bashar Assad, whom he has chosen to become president of Lebanon. Clearly, Hezbollah's alliance with the Syrian dictator is much more valuable than the flimsy loin cloth that Zebran provided: Hezbollah fought in Syria alongside Assad and Putin's forces in crushing the Syrian people into submission since 2011. Frangiyeh is therefore a more reliable and profitable partner in the ideological threesome Assad-Frangiyeh-Nasrallah.
Zebran is hurt, deeply hurt, at the betrayal. He gave Hassan everything: his honor, his popularity among the Christians of Lebanon, and his metaphorical political arse. And this is how he is rewarded? In a press conference on December 6, Zebran sobbed about how his "problem is with the 'honest ones' (الصادقون) [i.e. Nasrallah's Hezbollah] who have reneged on the agreement, the promise and the guarantee; and this is not the first time, at least in the recent past, starting with the expatriate vote, the elections, and the government".
How pathetic is the sight of the cheated wife (Zebran Basij) crying in public about how her husband (Hassan Nasrallah) is sleeping with the Christian eunuch (Sleiman Frangiyeh) who also sleeps with the Butcher of Damascus (Bashar Assad).
If anything, Basij has hit the bottom of the excrement barrel in which he knew he was diving when he signed his MOU with Hezbollah. The Lebanese have a saying that likens marriage to a barrel full of excrement but topped by a very thin layer of honey: One starts with the honey only to quickly sink deeper in the barrel. Basij's lack of acumen, his shortsightedness, and his tiresome short-term hapless scheming to get to power at any price.... Not only does it make him a failure of a politician; it certainly should eliminate him from the top office of the country.
I look forward to the formalization of the divorce proceedings. But I also fear for Mr. Basij: All of Hezbollah's former prostitutes have been killed in mysterious car and roadside bombs, if not outright gunning down assassinations, when they decided to break with the Satanic party. That was the fate of the former Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri, and a slew of former servants of Hezbollah who one day were convinced by the US to turn against their master. For now, Basij is under US sanctions for corruption; let us hope the US does not make a deal with him by lifting the sanctions in exchange for his formalizing the end of his fornication with the Iranian militia.
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