Trump is bailing out of a highly unpopular and very costly war he waged against Iran on behalf of Israel, just in time to make a generally dumb American public forget the war by Election Day in November. It's a war that not only did not achieve any of its otherwise very poorly defined objectives, but created new complications that a dumb administration did not anticipate when it should have. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is one of them. Surging oil prices is another. Irreparable damage to relationships with countries we still call allies out of habit but not out of conviction.
No unconditional surrender. No regime change. No deal on the nuclear. All the testosteronic bravados of the Great Moron and his minions gone for naught.
Bottom line: The manly MAGA warriors Don Quixote Trump and Sancho Pancha Hegseth have capitulated and chickened out of a war they could not win and which they waged to prove their love for their Zionist lover, the war criminal Netanyahu. They have 6 months to repair the damage they have done to MAGA-GOP electability in the midterms. In other words, Iran has won by not losing, and the US has lost by not winning.
In Lebanon, the fear is that by "ending" the war with Iran, the US might be dragged by their Zionist handlers into a revenge war against Lebanon's Hezbollah. There are no risks to the midterms in Lebanon, the insignificant small country that always pays the price for ententes and detentes between all the big guys with big guns around it.
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Operation Epic Fury against Iran 'is over,' Rubio says
Ana Ceballos, Nabih Bulos, Michael Wilner
Tue, May 5, 2026
[Donkey-eared] Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a news conference at the White House on Tuesday. (Alex Wong / Getty Images)
The U.S. military campaign that launched the war with Iran, Operation Epic Fury, "is over," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday, telling reporters that a new defensive phase had begun to secure the Strait of Hormuz — though President Trump later said he was pausing the effort to allow more time for a deal with Iran.
The declaration of an end to offensive operations comes as Trump continues to threaten a new round of strikes against the Islamic Republic, which persists in disrupting commercial shipping traffic through the vital waterway. But Rubio, who is also the national security advisor, suggested the Trump administration is reluctant to return to full-scale war.
"The operation, Epic Fury, is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation," Rubio said at a news briefing at the White House.
“This is the first step toward reopening the strait,” he added. “We are doing it not only because we were asked, but because we are the only ones that can.”
Trump said Tuesday night on Truth Social that Project Freedom — the new defensive operation — would be paused for a "short period of time" at the request of Pakistan and other countries "to see whether or not" a final agreement can be reached with Iran.
The shift came within hours of top administration officials touting the new initiative as a needed step to ensure the flow of traffic could resume through the international waterway as hostilities have continued in the region.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had told reporters at a news conference at the Pentagon earlier on Tuesday that new defensive operation was in response to what he called "international extortion" by Iran.
"We are not looking for a fight, but Iran cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway," Hegseth said.
The operation was launched nearly a month after the United States reached a fragile ceasefire with Iran, a truce that Hegseth said remains in effect even though Tehran has continued to attack U.S. forces and commercial vessels.
"The ceasefire is not over," Hegseth said.
Defense Secretary [and Christian Warrior] Pete Hegseth takes questions during a press briefing at the Pentagon on Tuesday in Arlington, Virginia. Tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. and Iran traded shots on Monday after Trump said the U.S. military would open the strait for shipping. (Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)
Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that since the ceasefire took effect, Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times, seized two container ships and attacked U.S. forces more than 10 times. All of these instances, he said, are "below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."
Those attacks have left more than 1,550 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf and unable to transit, disrupting global trade and pushing energy markets toward crisis, with fuel prices climbing and shipping costs surging.
Later on Tuesday, President Trump was asked what Iran needed to do for him to deem Iran in violation of the ceasefire agreement. He said the public will "find out because I'll let you know."
"They know what to do. They know what not to do, more importantly actually," Trump said during an appearance in the Oval Office.
Trump, however, acknowledged that Iran has continued to fire at ships from "little boats," which he described as fast but not as "fast as a missile."
"They are looking around for little boats to try and compete with our great Navy," Trump said as he dismissed the hostilities.
The new U.S. mission on the strait was cast as separate from the broader military campaign over Iran's nuclear program. As negotiations to denuclearize Iran continue, Caine said commercial vessels wanting to cross the strait will now "see, hear, and frankly, feel the U.S. combat power around them, on the sea, in the skies and on the radio."
Rubio said that the future of Iran's nuclear stockpile — which remains buried under rubble from U.S. strikes conducted last year — remains the subject of a U.S. diplomatic effort with Tehran that so far has made little headway.
"What the president would prefer is a deal," he said. "That is, so far, not the path that Iran has chosen."
Two U.S. commercial vessels, escorted by Navy destroyers, have already moved through the strait, Hegseth said.
"We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact," Hegseth said. "They said they control the strait. They do not."
Hegseth called the operation a "direct gift from the United States to the world," aimed at resuming traffic through one of the world's most vital waterways.
"To what remains of Iran's forces: If you attack American troops or innocent commercial shipping, you will face overwhelming and devastating American firepower," Hegseth said. "The president has been very clear about this."
Iranian parliamentary speaker and top negotiator Mohammed Ghalibaf said in a statement on X on Tuesday that a “new equation” was being “solidified” in the strait, adding that the maritime traffic was jeopardized by the U.S. and its allies “through the violation of the ceasefire and the imposition of a blockade.”
“Of course, their evil will diminish,” he wrote. “We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we have not even begun yet.”
On Tuesday evening local time, the United Arab Emirates' defense ministry said in a statement on X that the country’s defensive systems “are actively engaging with missiles and [drone] threats" and that “sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations.”
Tuesday’s barrage marks the second consecutive day of attacks targeting the UAE since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire took hold on April 8. On Monday, the UAE said it engaged a total of 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones launched from Iran.
For its part, Iran said it had no “pre-planned program” to attack the UAE’s oil facilities, but that attacks were prompted by the United States' plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to an unnamed military official quoted by Iranian state TV.
“What happened was the product of the U.S. military’s adventurism to create a passage for ships to illegally pass through” the strait, the official said, adding the U.S. military “must be held accountable for it.”
Ceballos and Wilner reported from Washington, and Bulos from Beirut.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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Newsmax reporter to Hegseth: ‘When did the president decide to capitulate?’
Ellen Mitchell
Tue, May 5, 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared annoyed Tuesday after a reporter asked him when President Trump decided to capitulate on his initial demands for Iran to surrender unconditionally.
In a tense exchange at a Pentagon press briefing, Newsmax’s James Rosen pointed to Trump’s changing justification for the war with Tehran which began on Feb. 28, initially offering his “gratitude and admiration” to Hegseth and U.S. forces before questioning the president’s shifting rhetoric.
“I want to first express my gratitude and admiration for the work you do and for everyone involved in our armed forces and also for the accomplishments of Operation Epic Fury, which I think are too often dismissed too lightly,” Rosen said to Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine.
“But those accomplishments don’t obscure, I think, a central default that has occurred here, and I would like you both to address it,” he added. “On the first day of this conflict, President Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and said, ‘when we’re finished, take over your government. It’ll be yours to take.’ And then on the seventh day of the conflict, in a Truth Social post, the president said, ‘There will be no deal with Iran except’ all caps, exclamation mark ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’”
Rosen continued: “What happens to that pledge to the Iranians? And when did the president decide to capitulate on his demand for unconditional surrender?”
Hegseth insisted that Trump “hasn’t capitulated on anything,” attacking Rosen for asking the question.
“James, I wouldn’t – You started out nicely, but you ended exactly where we knew you would end,” the defense chief responded.
“The president hasn’t capitulated on anything. He holds the cards, we maintain the upper hand, and Project Freedom only strengthens that hand,” Hegseth continued. “And so, he will ensure that whatever deal is made, or whatever end state is reached, creates ensuring that Iran never has a nuclear weapon, which is A No. 1.”
“And he’s been focused on that, and the deal and discussions are centered on that. And what the Iranian people take advantage of after the fact is up to them,” he added. “And he’s been very clear about that.”
Trump at the start of the conflict demanded unconditional surrender from Tehran, calling on the Iranian people to take back the country from the regime. As the Middle East conflict has continued, however, the president changed his tune, declaring that a regime change had been achieved as Iran’s original leaders were “decimated” and replaced by a new group of individuals.
The U.S. is currently in a fragile ceasefire agreement with Iran, which Trump extended indefinitely on April 21 to get the regime to come to a peace agreement. He has repeatedly claimed that the fighting is close to an end, even as he has continuously made new threats against Tehran.
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Bessent makes stunning Hormuz move that could reset oil prices
Tobi Opeyemi Amure
Wed, May 6, 2026
The U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant disruption in global oil supply and pushing Brent crude prices up by roughly 50%.
Every American learns where the Strait of Hormuz is at the worst possible moment. It is a 21-mile-wide bottleneck off the coast of Oman that, on a quiet week, carries one in five barrels of the world's oil.
When it works, nobody talks about it. When it stops, you find out at the pump.
It stopped on Feb. 28. A U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran kicked off a war that effectively closed the Strait, choked global oil supply by an estimated 14.5 million barrels a day, and pushed Brent crude up roughly 50% in two months.
Gasoline near $4 a gallon is back, household budgets are bleeding, and the Federal Reserve has watched its inflation case unravel one tanker at a time.
Then on May 4, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on television and tried to end the whole crisis in a single sentence.
Why the Hormuz oil announcement matters
Bessent told CNBC's Brian Sullivan that "the Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we've let that happen to supply the rest of the world."
The framing was deliberate.
In a separate Fox News "America's Newsroom” appearance the same day, Bessent said the U.S. has "absolute control" of the Strait and that Iran does not. He paired that with a direct shot at China, saying Beijing's energy purchases were "funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism."
The numbers behind the claim are staggering. Bessent told Fox News there are "more than 150,200 crude carriers that can come out," each holding roughly two million barrels.
Goldman Sachs estimates the closure has cut global daily production by 14.5 million barrels, the largest disruption ever recorded by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Al Jazeera noted.
That math should have crashed oil. If even a fraction of those carriers move in the next month, you are looking at hundreds of millions of barrels arriving into a market that has been pricing scarcity since February.
Brent crude shrugged. It traded near $108 a barrel on Monday, May 4, essentially flat on the news, according to Al Jazeera.
Bessent says the U.S. has "absolute control" of the Strait of Hormuz.Photo by AMIRHOSSEIN KHORGOOEI on Getty Images
How analysts are scoring the Hormuz reopening
The gap between what Bessent said and what the market did is the actual story.
The people who actually move oil for a living, ship operators and forecast desks, are not buying the announcement at face value.
Bjørn Højgaard, CEO of ship manager Anglo-Eastern, put it bluntly. "It takes both sides to unblock, not just one," Højgaard said, CNN reported. "Either party can signal that they are willing to let certain ships through, but unless the other side accepts that in practice, it doesn't materially change the reality on the water."
The forecast desks agree. Here is what the major banks are pricing in for Brent.
Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 forecast, $110 a barrel, MarketScreener indicated
Goldman Sachs Q4 forecast, $90 a barrel, raised from $80, TheStreet reported
Citi bull case for Q2, $130 a barrel, CNBC confirmed
Barclays full-year average, $100 a barrel, raised from $85 on May 1, according to Investing.com
The lowest mainstream forecast still has Brent averaging $85 for the year. That is roughly 30% above where it sat in January.
When I cross-checked Bessent's "150 to 200 carrier" figure against the IEA tanker tracking data for the week of April 27, the disconnect got sharper. Project Freedom, the Navy escort operation Bessent is championing, has moved exactly two U.S.-flagged merchant ships out of the Strait. Two, against a backlog north of 150.
ING Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson summed up where the market actually is. "The lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels," Patterson said in a research note, CNBC reported.
What Bessent's Hormuz claim means for your portfolio and your gas tank
Take an abstract number like 14.5 million barrels a day. That is the disruption. Now translate it into the kind of math that hits a kitchen table.
A typical American household driving 13,000 miles a year on a 25-mile-per-gallon vehicle is paying somewhere between $400 and $700 more in annual fuel costs than they were last summer. That is real money out of a real wallet, every two weeks, before any of it touches a stock chart.
The portfolio side is messier. If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you are already long this story. Energy was the second-best-performing sector for much of 2026, and the war premium has fattened margins for U.S. shale producers, refiners, and the Permian-heavy names that anchor most institutional energy ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
A clean Hormuz reopening compresses those gains. A messy one, the scenario analysts and ship operators are pricing, keeps the trade alive.
The Federal Reserve sits in the middle of it. Every week the Strait stays choked is another week the Fed has to defend a hot inflation print without cutting rates, which keeps mortgage costs elevated and credit-card APRs (annual percentage rates) where they are.
What I keep coming back to is the gap between confidence and execution. Bessent told Fox News that high gas prices are a "temporary aberration" that will end in weeks or months, TRT World reported.
Two ships have moved. Brent is at $108. Tehran has not signaled anything that resembles agreement.
Watch the next 30 days of tanker counts, not press conferences.
If carriers start clearing the Strait at scale, energy stocks give back ground, and the Fed gets cover to cut by July. If they don't, your gas bill is your 2026 economic forecast.
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