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Evidence Grows That Trump Is Using the War in Iran to Manipulate Markets
Joe Wilkins
Wed, March 25, 2026
Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images
Just after noon on Friday, March 20th, US president Donald Trump declared victory to a group of reporters in his broadly unpopular war with Iran. Just two minutes later, however, he announced he was sending US marines anyway. The next minute, the president said there would be no boots on the ground after all. A few beats later, he admitted he didn’t want a ceasefire, then declared victory again, then requested a ceasefire.
The volley continued like this for nearly half an hour, the president’s stream of consciousness pouring from within, in a prime example of Trump’s contradictory messaging on Iran. In addition to exhausting reporters and scrambling the news cycle, episodes like this have fueled speculation that people close to the president are feeding off the chaos.
As a recent analysis by economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues, there’s evidence that insiders are profiting off the war in Iran. On Monday, for example, Trump reversed his weekend commitment to deliver painful retribution on the Iranian people if the country failed to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. At 7:05am on Monday morning, however, Trump chickened out, issuing a five-day pause on hostilities via a post on Truth Social.
The price of crude oil, which had flailed upward for weeks as shipments from the Persian Gulf slowed to a trickle, plummeted immediately, from around $112 a barrel before the announcement to a low of $97 by 11:00am.
However, about 15 minutes before Trump’s post, CNBC reported, there was a massive increase in the amount of S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the market, right before their price skyrocketed from around $6,500 to around $6,700. Someone also got incredibly lucky playing the oil market, with West Texas Intermediate May futures seeing a massive spike in trading activity at the exact same time — a sign that someone had shed theirs before the price experienced a major drop.
“The story would be baffling,” Krugman wrote, “except that there’s an obvious explanation: somebody close to Trump knew what he was about to do, and exploited that inside information to make huge, instant profits.”
It certainly isn’t the first time people had lucrative premonitions just minutes before Trump’s geopolitical decisions become public. Earlier this year, an incredibly well-timed bet on Polymarket came in just minutes before Trump ordered the US military to attack Venezuela.
In any normal world, Krugman explained, this would be more than enough cause for treason.
“I’d very much like to know exactly who was making those trades yesterday morning,” the famed economist wrote. “I’m sure we’ll find out once Kash Patel’s FBI carries out its careful, no-holds-barred investigation.”
Murphy on ‘$1.5BILLION’ stock trade before Trump Iran announcement: ‘Mind blowing corruption’
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on Monday drew attention to an unusually large oil stock trade that occurred moments before President Trump announced a five-day pause on previously threatened energy infrastructure strikes in Iran, indicating it appeared be a case of insider trading.
In an X post highlighted by Murphy, a stock market watcher said, “In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold.”
“$1.5 BILLION. Let me say it again – a $1.5 BILLION BET. Bigger than any futures purchases made at the time. 5 minutes before Trump’s post,” Murphy wrote in his own post.
“Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption,” he added.
At least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were sold between 6:49 a.m. and 6:51 a.m. on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
Trump’s post was made at 7:05 a.m.
International markets including Germany’s DAX Index Futures and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index Futures also saw an unusual spike in trades, Bloomberg reported.
Oil and gasoline prices had been rising globally since the U.S. and Israel began their strikes on Iran, but they dropped quickly in the wake of Trump’s Monday announcement.
Murphy’s post draws attention to a broader concern among lawmakers about politicians and their families using their access to to make more informed trades.
Earlier this year, House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced a bill seeking to ban members of Congress from buying new stock but allow them to keep what they already own.
It would also require lawmakers to file a public notice with the clerk of the House at least seven days before they choose to sell an existing stock.
Last year, Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.) introduced a bill that would prohibit lawmakers, their spouses, dependent children and trustees from owning, buying or selling individual stocks.
Democrats have also pushed specifically for legislation that would prevent the president and vice president from insider trading.
President Trump urged Congress to pass legislation on the matter during his State of the Union address.
On Monday, Kalshi and Polymarket said they will roll new insider trading restrictions that preemptively “block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from trading in certain politics and sports markets.”
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