Formal recognition of Israel, an American Jewish colony, by the influential Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would usher a seismic shift in the region, keeping in mind that the US presidential elections are a little more than a year away, which may be prompting an oversized mediatic optimism.
Foremost among the hurdles facing such a deal is the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, short of which a deal, assuming it is reached, would face tremendous headwinds against its sustainability on the medium and long terms, and could in fact result in a backlash. The Arab springs of a decade ago have died down with little achievements, but such large scale historical phenomena follow an oscillation pendulum with wide amplitudes of time. At the current state of affairs, Arab governments are still very unpopular with their peoples, with new dictators having replaced toppled dictators. Should a Saudi-Israeli deal be made over the Palestinian cause and seal the fate of the Palestinian people to live forever under Israeli repression, it would add fuel to the fire of popular dissatisfaction among Arab peoples.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is no dupe and he will not fall in the trap of a deal with Israel that would give the Palestinians a few crumbs and diminish the validity and justness of their cause. Even if he is given security guarantees by the US, which it seems include the positioning of US troops on Saudi soil, and even if he obtains help in developing a nuclear program, these two gains might not be sufficient to offset what might be perceived as a treason to the Palestinians who, so far, have not been involved in the negotiations.
The reason for this pessimism is the extremist right-wing and violent government in power in Israel which has not yet shied away from declaring Palestine dead and voicing its ultimate objective of annexing the West Bank and Gaza. Though we don't know how far the Israelis might go in making concessions to the Palestinians, it is very difficult to imagine that government conceding on a full-fledged independence and sovereignty of Palestine. The Israeli government consists of a hodge-podge coalition of extremist religious ultra-nationalist partners who cannot fathom reversing their current violent policies of suffocating the Palestinians and forcing them to surrender the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. Netanyahu's granting the Palestinians significant concessions to achieve a deal with the Saudis is a non-starter.
Other hurdles include more greedy demands by the Israelis beyond the current $4 billion a year in U.S. military assistance. Sources say that Israel too wants a defense treaty with the U.S. to match any new treaty with Saudi Arabia. Also, more than half of polled Americans oppose an agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that would commit U.S. soldiers to defend the Saudis in the event of a war.
Then there is Iran. As long as the Islamic theocracy in Iran maintains its hostility laced with a potential nuclear threat vis-a-vis the Saudis, the Americans can leverage the Saudis' fear to force a deal on them that might not rescue the Palestinians. But should the regime of the ayatollas vacillate or fall, then the present deck of cards would be reshuffled.
In New York for the UN general assembly, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed as “delusional” the idea of peace in Israel-Palestine without full rights for the Palestinian people. Nabil Abu Rudeina, a spokesperson for President Abbas said, “Peace begins with Palestine, and stability begins with the Palestinian people obtaining their legitimate national rights and establishing their independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Without that, there is no peace, no security and no stability in the region". An agreement that doesn’t include real concessions to the Palestinians could feed anger in the region, increase sympathy for the Iranians and hatred to the Saudis. Some of the warming relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia (as in opening Saudi skies to Israeli airlines) have been driven by mutual acrimony toward Iran. On the other hand, the parallel Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran may be only for show, and for Saudi Arabia it might simply be a way to poke the eye of the Americans and their Israeli poodles and leverage its negotiating posture.
Bin Salman appears to favor "some" concessions to the Palestinians and he understands the risks involved in doing so. In an interview, he vowed to work with “whoever is there” in the Israeli government as long as the deal ensures the “needs” of the Palestinians. His use of the word "needs" indicates he might be willing to accept Israeli concessions that fall short of satisfying the Palestinian "wants".
All in all, the deal faces so many difficulties that it might falter and fall through faster than expected, despite the US elections-driven optimism. But even if a deal is reached that does not address the core issue of the fate of Palestine, and only offers cosmetic patchups to the Palestinians, the medium and long terms are sure to guarantee its ultimate failure.
No comments:
Post a Comment