Hezbollah's Existential Threat to Lebanon's Christians

Najwa Abi-Haydar – Al-Markaziyah, May 31, 2023

Translated from Arabic

The French presidential statement, which was issued by the Elysée after French President Emmanuel Macron met with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Ra’i, contained a significant provision more important than the call to elect a President. This provision speaks of “the necessity for Lebanon’s Christians to remain at the core of the sectarian and institutional balance within the Lebanese State.”

Prior to the Elysée, the Maronite Patriarch heard similar words in the Vatican which is very concerned about the survival and endurance of the Christians in Lebanon, particularly with the very high rates of emigration within the younger generation. The concern is that Lebanon is being voided of its Christian younger generation with a view to alter the balance of force by demographic change, with simultaneous efforts to settle the Palestinian and Syrian refugees permanently on Lebanese soil. The Vatican expressed its attachment to the shared-living formula and its rejection of the power imbalance [in favor of  the Shiites] that is leading some Christians to call for federalism, partition, separation and putting an end to the unique Lebanese formula of shared-living.

Beyond the presidential election stalemate now in its 6^th month, there is an existential threat to Lebanon as a whole, according to Christian political sources. The threat consists in a systematic voiding of the constitutional institutions in an attempt to force a constitutive conference which would consecrate constitutionally and permanently the gains acquired by the force of weapons.

The sources add that the obstruction by the Shiite duo [Syrian Amal and Iranian Hezbollah] of the election of a president by insisting on its candidate Sleiman Frangiyeh, despite the rejection of the latter by a large Christian consensus, and unlike the situation when Michel Aoun’s candidacy was compelled by his leading the largest Parliamentary bloc, confirms the intention of the Shiite duo to maintain the vacancy in the presidential seat and use it as a master card with which to negotiate new and significant political gains.

An observation of the recent postures by the Shiite duo, specifically after the Beijing Agreement [between Saudi Arabia and Iran] which the Shiites claim to be to their advantage as evidenced by the unconditional return of Syria to the Arab League, suggests a significant development: Tensions, broken promises, displeasure at the accord between the Free Patriotic Movement [FPM] and the opposition and vicious campaigns against their candidate, closure of Parliament to prevent the holding of an electoral assembly, intimidating military demonstrations, etc. This landscape reflects a trend toward imposing new facts on the ground as a prelude to a systematic toppling of the Lebanese formula such that the Shiite duo consecrates its political gains in the constitution in exchange for ending the presidential vacancy.

However, the sources say that Hezbollah fears that secret provisions may be contained in the Beijing Agreement or other public or secret accords aiming at a gradual settling of problems and imposing stability. A general trend toward peace between the countries in the region will undercut all non-state militias and armed organizations, particularly those affiliated with Iran like Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is fully aware of these facts and is preparing itself to seize all the cards available to it to consecrate its gains before the “D-Day” when those secret provisions are implemented. It may be that Hezbollah may compensate its potential military losses with political gains for the Shiite community through a change in the Lebanese system, by a constitutive conference that sees the Shiites on the rise and the Christians in decline. Will the Shiite duo’s plan succeed? Or will it be defeated by the vigilance of the Vatican and other leaders keen on preserving the Lebanese formula of coexistence?