This was the pattern from the 1970s: When Israel's government got in trouble domestically, it would fire up the Lebanese border. When Syria's government or its terrorist proxies got in trouble, they'd shoot a few rockets on Israel. Whether these escapist movements stopped short of a major war or escalated into a war is not the point. The point is to distract their captive people from the troubles the governments were facing, to rally their ultra-nationalist and ultra-religious followers, and thus relieve themselves of the pressures they're facing.
Hezbollah continues to this day with this approach. Every year, "someone" fires a rocket from South Lebanon onto Israel's northern colonies. We never find out who that "someone" is, but Hezbollah's lackeys claim it must be a "rogue" Palestinian who acted without seeking permission from Hezbollah or the Lebanese government. A reminder that Hezbollah controls Lebanon south of the Litani river in collusion with an inept, incompetent UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) whose sitting duck soldiers' job is to count the rockets and who have no authority whatsoever to prevent these actions. Obviously the only missing actor in the area is the Lebanese army whose minimal and even more useless presence is a decoy to satisfy the idiots at the UN. This circus has been going on since 1978, and it did not prevent any wars (e.g. 1982) or cross-border attacks (e.g. 1996 and 2006).
Hezbollah has lost its majority in last May's elections in Lebanon, and has been unable to impose its own candidate to the presidency of the country. It is facing unprecedented attacks on the domestic front from the majority of the Lebanese who are sick and tired of making Lebanon the only Arab country "liberating" Palestine. For 5 decades, this has been the fate of Lebanon: To be the village idiot of an Arab world that has essentially given up on liberating Palestine and has in fact made peace with Israel. The collapse of Lebanon is largely attributed to Hezbollah's domination and to its engaging in all manner of corruption and unlawful activities to finance itself. How can Hezbollah, whose last act of "liberation" from the Lebanese south goes back to 2006, rehabilitate itself in the eyes of a despondent and angry Lebanese population? By resurrecting its "resistance" posture. But it is too corwardly to do so in a frontal manner, because that would bring its existence into serious question. So it hides behind "rogue" Palestinian refugees to shoot a few rockets on Israel and try to herd the Lebanese population behind it, like it used to do. But the Lebanese people have long understood the game Hezbollah plays.
That does not mean that Hezbollah (and Syria and Iran behind it) is the sole culprit. The Israelis do it too. Extremist Jewish terrorist Netanyahu is in a dire situation. He is facing criminal charges and is trying to subvert the independence of the judiciary in order to save his hide. He is facing months-long demonstrations, and has caved in to the pressure by postponing acting on the law he has drafted to kill the independence of the judiciary. What else can he do to distract his foreign colonists and settlers? He has increased his terrorist policies against the indigenous native Palestinians, and only yesterday his forces have stormed into the Al-Aqsa mosque, killing and maiming Muslim worshippers on the tenuous motive that there were "agitators" inside the mosque. How rich!
And now, Hezbollah's Palestinian-camouflaged rockets against the Israeli north is giving Netanyahu a break. He can now claim to defend the country against the terrorists of Hezbollah, and by raising the antes, he hopes to distract his colonist settler people away from his crimes and his subversion of the judiciary. His government, the most radical right-wing Jewish terrorist settler government in the history of Israel - which was founded by secular atheist socialist European Jews - aims in fact to annex the West Bank and Gaza, and be done once and for all with an independent Palestine.
In other words, terrorist Hezbollah is now giving terrorist Israel a pretext to make a final land grab in Palestine, from the river to the sea, in exchange for rehabilitating its "resistance" lies in the eyes of the Lebanese population. By hoping to fire up the Lebanese-Israeli border, Hezbollah is trying to escape a harsh final judgment on its career as a fake "resistance" movement.
That has been the modus operandi in Lebanon for the past five decades, involving a variety of actors - Palestinians, Syrians, Iranians, Israelis, Americans, French, Saudi, Egyptian, etc. They all had a role to play in the never-ending torment of this tiny country.
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