Strange though it may seem, here are some elements demonstrating that the desperate coalition in power by force in Lebanon - namely Hezbollah's Iranian boss Hassan Nasrallah, the Christian Dhimmi Fascist Party (Free Patriotic Movement, FPM) of Gebran Bassil, and the pro-Syrian Baathist Amal party of dinosaur Nabih Berri - are negotiating virtually directly with their enemy Israel.
This is a huge taboo because all three parties have never ceased to claim their enmity to Israel and their refusal to negotiate anything with it (Shebaa Farms, maritime borders, etc.), lest it becomes a slippery slope toward "normalization", a bad word in the Syrian-Iranian dictionary. You see, the declared goal of these resistors to the Israeli enemy is to uproot the Zionist entity and push the Jews back into the sea whence they came, and restore the dominion of the Islamic Umma - to be honest, they only want the Shiite version of the fucking Umma, not its Sunni edition - over Palestine. Not that they would fundamentally differ in their execution of that dominion, seeing that the lines of conflict between them go back to a 1300-year old quarrel over power. Nothing short of primitive, yet extant Bronze Age vintage. So, it would be anathema for these steadfast resistors to be seen as negotiating with an enemy whose existence they do not even recognize.
Remember that the tripartite coalition has lost its majority in the latest parliamentary elections, that Gebran Bassil is under US sanctions for corruption, that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization per US classification, that the pro-Iran/Syria tandem has so far rejected all compromises with Israel over delineating the maritime borders and has therefore hampered all efforts by Lebanon to begin exploiting the gas and oil reserves that, geography be damned, lies across the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border.
The reader needs to keep the truth in mind: The tripartite coalition doesn't recognize the existence of what it calls the "Zionist entity", and is therefore not at all interested in an honest deal with Israel. It wallows ideologically behind its rejectionist firewall, yet realizes it must deal with reality. So its objective - let me rephrase, its tactic - is to squeeze concessions from Israel without conceding anything to Israel. Which doesn't really work in negotiations.
Hezbollah has threatened that Israel's extraction of its reserves from the Karish field - which abuts or overlaps (depending on whose side you're on) Lebanon's Block 9 - BEFORE Lebanon begins to extract its own oil and gas, would constitute a casus belli. But since Israel is much farther ahead than Lebanon in its extraction activities, having signed deals with Cyprus, Egypt and now the European Union thirsty for oil and gas after the embargo on Russian oil and gas, Hezbollah's threats represent another facet of the "Always Say No" policy of Iran via-à-vis Israel. In other words, Hezbollah and Iran are determined to scuttle any chances for Israel to exploit its reserves along the Lebanese border, and they do that by preventing Lebanon itself from exploiting its own reserves. But since they don't want to negotiate with Israel (as this implies normalizing with the enemy), then oil and gas extraction anywhere near the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border isn't going to happen unless one of the two sides decides to go to war to secure its rights.
In recent months, the Christians of the coalition (President Michel Aoun and his poodle son-in-law Gebran Bassil, leaders of the Fascist FPM) have shown a willingness to soften their rejectionist attitude, which is likely to displease their ultra-rejectionist ally Hezbollah. This is not out of an ethical desire to see Lebanon rise from its total economic collapse by finally generating revenue from oil and gas, but it stems from more pedestrian concerns.
After standing with Hezbollah's demands for the entire disputed maritime area to be granted to Lebanon, including parts of the Israeli Karish field, Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil have been sending subliminal messages to the American mediator, the latest of whom is Amos Hochstein. Bassil has hinted that he would consider an eventual peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel, a huge no-no for his ally Hezbollah. Michel Aoun as President has so far refused to sign the decree destined to the UN in which Lebanon claims the entirety of the disputed area (between so-called Lines 23 and Lines 29), and has clearly said that Lebanon should define its border at Line 23, thus giving Israel the entirety of the disputed area. Again, another no-no for Hezbollah. The main reason for this political tango is that Aoun wants to put pressure on, or give incentives to, the US to lift its sanctions off the much beloved son-in-law, the Dear Fascist Leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, something that Amos Hochstein has clearly said is off the table: Lifting sanctions is the purview of the US Treasury and not the US Administration.
The "resistors" (Aoun, Bassil, Nasrallah and Berri) are running like headless chickens: Torn between, on one hand, securing "some" or "any" oil and gas extraction by Lebanon (by conceding the entire Karish Field to Israel) and claiming this as an achievement, and on the other hand, maintaining their principled stance of harassing Israel ad libitum with bellicose threats and refusing to negotiate and normalize with their declared enemy.
What I find interesting is that the US has disingenuously appointed a mediator who is a dual citizen of Israel and the US. Amos Hochstein used to be an Israeli Army soldier who may have fought against Hezbollah in past skirmishes and wars and who became a naturalized US citizen. Thus it appears that Aoun, Bassil, Nasrallah and Berri, as hateful of Israel as they may be, are compelled to negotiate DIRECTLY with Israel. I doubt that Hochstein is keeping his Israeli and American identities separate, and is more likely playing the oxymoronic role of both one of the two parties AND the unbiased mediator.
The economic pressure of making money from oil and gas is weighing heavily on the anti-American, anti-Israeli, "resistors". The financial and economic collapse of Lebanon is largely of their own making because their illegitimate resistance movement has become a cover for large-scale corruption, including floating the Syrian economy with massive smuggling of Lebanese subsidized commodities across the lawless border between Syria and Lebanon. Hezbollah and Berri want the border with Syria to remain lawless because that is how they bring weapons and mercenaries into Lebanon. They also have always rejected a compelling presence of the Lebanese Army along the Israeli border because this would deny them the pretext of "resisting" against Israel. I find it funny that the US is forcing these numskulls to negotiate virtually directly with their archenemy Israel.
Amos Hochstein is returning soon to Lebanon for an umpteen visit, and a ship belonging to the power company Energean has reached Israel's waters. Gas is expected to begin flowing some time during the Fall of 2022. Meanwhile, and as is customary of a rudderless Lebanese governance, Lebanon remains unable to make up its mind: Either benefit from its gas reserves with some agreement with Israel, or be shoved again into war with Israel by Hezbollah. Either Lebanon formally concedes the Karish field to Israel so both countries can start making money, or Lebanon continues to play obstruction after obstruction to satisfy Iran, in which case neither country will exploit its reserves and war becomes inevitable. Hezbollah's raison d'etre is to harass Israel and scuttle anything involving Israel. Nasrallah's priority is not for Lebanon to extract its oil and gas, despite the need for the bankrupt country to make some money; Nasrallah's priority is to prevent Israel from extracting its own oil and gas. It is therefore hard to imagine Hezbollah acquiescing to any mutually beneficial understanding that allows both Israel and Lebanon to benefit. As such, I think Amos Hochstein is wasting his time. In turn, the internal dynamics between the pro-Iranian Lebanese Shiites and their Christian Fascist allies of the FPM will increasingly become strained because of the difference in priorities as set by Hezbollah. The FPM has been a lapdog for Hezbollah since 2006, but right now it is weighing the aptness of the Lebanese saying, "Do we want to eat grapes, or kill the vineyard guard?"
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