After getting beaten down to a pulp in its latest stupid war against Israel, despite its hollering for decades that its missiles could reach, destroy and eliminate the Zionist state, Iran's militia Hezbollah in Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire.
Before last fall's war, Israel had kept its occupation of the Shebaa Farms and part of the village of Ghajar following its withdrawal in 2000. Now after Big-Balls Hassan Nasrallah's war, defeat and death, Israel has increased its occupation. It now occupies five additional hills along its border with Lebanon, which goes to show that, in Iranian logic, you resist occupation of land by losing more land. Like George Costanza's "negotiating" with NBC for less money than originally offered.
But now that the smell of burning flesh and destroyed buildings has vanished, the loser Hezbollah is refusing to lay down its weapons as it promised it will do when it joined the latest government. The government, it must be given credit for it, has been generous and patient with the lawless unlawful militia of Iran in Lebanon: It has integrated five Hezbollah ministers and has refused to engage in retribution against the militia that has brought misery, wars, corruption, drug smuggling and overall corruption and lawlessness along the Lebanese-Syrian, and Lebanese-Israeli borders.
The government and the vast majority of the Lebanese people want Hezbollah to disarm. Not out love for Israel as the US does, but out of the rational conclusion that Israel has much more firepower than anyone in the region. For decades, ever since the Palestinians tried the 'Big Balls' strategy against Israeli firepower and lost, then after Hezbollah borrowed the PLO's 'Big balls' and attempted to erase Israel from the map, the tiny and vulnerable country of Lebanon kept telling these maniacs that diplomacy and progress are the best option to combating Zionist expansionism. But to no avail.
In fact, for a while it was Western treacherous diplomacy that served and helped Hezbollah grow: From Reagan's cowardly flight from Beirut in 1983 after 243 US marines were murdered by tiny one-year old Hezbollah, to the Bush Sr.'s license to the Assad regime, a sponsor of Hezbollah, to occupy and brutalize Lebanon for 30 years in exchange for Assad's rallying the anti-Saddam front in the 1991 Gulf war and also to get Assad to release the US hostages held by Hezbollah in 1980s Beirut, to the Bushes' special oil-stained friendship with the corrupt Saudi-puppet prime minister Rafik Hariri who kept defending the illegal retention by Hezbollah of its weapons after all other militias had deposed theirs....
After weeks of negotiations, and after the self-labeled irrevocable decision by the Lebanese government of Joseph Aoun and Nawwaf Salam to disarm Hezbollah, Hezbollah is reneging on all that it agreed to after its defeat and decimation. It refuses to disarm. The Lebanese government will receive today or tomorrow a detailed plan by the Lebanese Army on how to collect Hezbollah's weapons. By week's end, the Lebanese government is expected to approve the Army's plan, and then the big question: Will there be a confrontation between a reluctant Hezbollah and the Army?
Hezbollah has openly threatened to wage a civil war if the Army tries to disarm it by force. Tensions are rising and Hezbollah's pathetic pocket-bikes brigades have been running the streets, taunting citizens and the army, and otherwise challenging the will of the majority of the Lebanese people.
Now, please note that Hezbollah's reluctance to disarm is not its own. Hezbollah is Iran's militia, and Iran is in a wait-and-see mode with respect to potential negotiations with the US despite massive sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. As long as Iran has any hope of securing a deal, it is keeping Hezbollah as a card with which to pressure the West. But the Lebanese government has established a timeline ending with year's end - a timeline that will be more concrete when the Army's plan is unveeile - and there is nothing in sight to suggest that Iran and the US will reach an agreement by that deadline.
This week and the next will make or break the government's decision to disarm Hezbollah. If this decision fails to materialize, then Israel would get the green light from the Trump administration to forcibly disarm Hezbollah, which means a new more devastating war by Israel against Lebanon, supposedly intended to eliminate Hezbollah. But just as the elimination of Hamas in Gaza remains more of a fantasy than a realizable goal, the elimination of Hezbollah might take months and years, during which Lebanon will, again, be reduced to rubble.
If the Lebanese government decides to act on its own and confront Hezbollah on the ground, a full-fledged civil war would break out, and if the 1975 war is any precedent, then the Lebanese whould generally break into two camps, a pro-government one and a pro-Hezbollah one. In 1975, the Sunni Muslims of Lebanon were the seditious party fighting alongside the Palestinians against their own government and army. The Army broke apart into sectarians brigades, most notably the Saudi-backed, Syrian-armed, Palestinian-allied sedition of the Sunni Muslim Lieutenant Ahmad Khatib who created his own Arab Army of Lebanon. Nowadays it is the Shiite Muslims who are the traitors. It is enough for Hezbollah's leadership to call on the Shiite soldiers of the Army to secede and join Hezbollah with their weapons for the army to break apart, for other sects (Maronites, Druze, etc.) to form their own militias, and the whole episode of 1975-1990 to repeat itself. Not to mention the inescapable lust of the terrorist Jewish fundamentalist Zionists of the Israeli government and the Al-Qaeda barbarian Muslim fundamentalists now running Syria to join the bloody fiesta.
And so we wait: Will it be a Hezbollah civil war? Or will it be an Israeli Zionist war?
How many times will the international community abandon a small country like Lebanon to the savagery of its neighbors? The international community came together to rescue East Timor from Indonesia's barbarity. It came together to rescue Bosnia from Serbian barbarity. Why is Lebanon, with all that it represents in diversity, democracy (albeit a mediocre one), communal living and attempt to reach accommodations between various religions, so immune to feasible concrete international assistance?