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Saturday, April 8, 2017

Trump's Plan for the Middle East

Donald Dumb is too dumb on his own to lay down a coherent plan, but he is well surrounded, and the outlines of a Trump administration plan for the Middle East are beginning to take shape.

1. His about-face against Assad and an involvement in Syria is not a sudden change of mind. It was planned. Trump has repeatedly said that he never announces his next steps ahead. He does rely on the surprise effect.

2. Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to solve the Israeli-Palstinian conflict through an Arab coalition. His excessive gentility (Trump said that Sissi has done a "fantastic" job in Egypt) with the Egyptian dictator is not only driven by his instinctive love for other like-minded strongmen and dictators, it does reflect a burgeoning alliance between a corporate oleophilic US Trump administration (whose State Dept. Secretary is the CEO of Exxon) and the Sunni dinosaurs of the Arabian peninsula including Egypt, Saudi, the Emirates and others.

3. Since Trump rules by deal-making, as he often claims, the deal thus appear to be as follows:
I (US, Trump) will side with you (Sunnis) against Iran (Shiite), as soon as Daesh is defeated (which appears to be imminent), while you (Sunni Arabs) help convince the Palestinians to accept whatever peace deal Israel offers them. In other words, Trump will reverse the Obama administration's rapprochement with Iran, go back to kissing ass to the oil-rich Sunni Arabs of the Peninsula, but this time in exchange for their influence on securing a peace deal in Israel-Palestine.

To do that, Trump will be building a US-Sunni coalition that will, in due time, defeat Assad, crush Hezbollah (which will please the Israelis and the anti-Iranian Lebanese), allow the dismemberment of the Shiite-dominated Syria and Iraq, thus emancipating the Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis from Shiite domination, securing a budding future Kurdistan state, and generally freeing other minorities (Christians, Yazidis, Kurds, and others) from the grip of the fake states that WWI and Sykes-Picot created. This will also enable the US administration to begin reversing what it perceives as a permissive nuclear deal with Iran that lifted the sanctions on the latter and allowed it to resume its weapons-building program.

The effects on the Lebanese stage are likely to be huge: Aoun will be facing a serious problem with his support of Hezbollah, which is already showing cracks in the "understanding" signed in 2006, disagreements over the electoral law in Lebanon's future legislative elections, and the corruption with which Hezbollah has infected the State in Lebanon and which Aoun claims to want to fight, etc... Aoun is likely to be in secret cahoots with the US after his rapprochement with the pro-US Lebanese Forces Party, a rapprochement that has enabled him to accede to the Presidency. That would be consistent with a coordination with Walid Phares, the one-time Lebanese Forces member and currently a Lebanese-American hillbilly adviser to Trump, and who harbors a historic hatred of Hezbollah and Iran.

The evolving situation may also push Hezbollah, prodded by its impending defeat in Syria and by Iran, to nudge Israel into a new war in the south of Lebanon, after the stalemated war between the two sides in 2006.A new war this time will be hellishly bloody for Lebanon and the Aoun administration, because the current configuration of the latter is such that Hezbollah is in the government and the President of the country is openly pro-Hezbollah, which Israel has taken as a justification for targeting all Lebanese State institutions (including the army) which it has avoided in the 2006 war with Hezbollah. Not this time. This might in fact destabilize the dysfunctional and ungovernable Lemon Republic to the point of pushing the constituent parties of the Lemon Republic back to the drawing table and redrawing the entire country and State from the failed Greater Lebanon of the 1919 Paris Peace Conference.

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