I am no fan of conspiracy theories that people in this part of the world are so fond of believing against any shred of other objective evidence...
But I could not help this afternoon, after reading the news that the US and Israel are preparing to attack Iran's nuclear sites, but deduce that such an attack will:
1- Inevitably draw Hezbollah into a fight with Israel at enormous cost to Lebanon.
2- Give Hezbollah a much needed lifeline into rehabilitating itself as a "resistance" movement against the "inevitable" Israeli aggression (even as Israel would be merely defending itself against missile attacks).
3-Provide a lifeline to the butcher of Damascus next door since he is an ally of Iran, and Assad could use the attack against Iran to re-mobilize - as Hezbollah would do in Lebanon - as the utmost defender against imperialism and zionism.
4- Abort the Syrian revolution
For decades, the Israelis and the Syrians were very happy to maintain quiet and peace on the Golan Heights, even though Israel ANNEXED, and not just occupied, the Golan Heights. Since 1974, not one bullet was ever fired from Syria into Israel, while 2 miles away in southern Lebanon, hordes of resistance movement - from the PLO to the PFLF and down to Hezbollah - were armed and sustained by Syria to force Lebanon into a fight with Israel that Syrian itself never fought.
This led many to question whether BOTH ISRAEL and the ASSAD regime are in cahoots, with some sort of tacit, implicit, secret...understandings and agreements in which:
A- the Israelis, freed from threat on the Golan, continue gobbling up Jerusalem and the West Bank
B- the Israelis, in exchange for security on the Golan, gave the Syrians a free hand in lebanon to keep this tormented country as a crucible of instability that both Israelis and Syrians loved.
C- The outcome of such an agreement being that the Syrians were effectively giving much needed room for the Israelis to continue in their annexation of Palestinian lands, and one day, the Israelis, now satisfied with the Syrians, return the Golan to Assad in some fashion.
D- Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the instability created by all these people (Israelis, Syrians, Palestinians, Iranians...) created a place the Palestinians could consider a substitute homeland and forget about making any claims to the Right of Return. This initially required giving the PLO full power in Lebanon (the 1970-1990 War), but failure to achieve this goal did not preempt the same ultimate objective, since the Palestinians are basically staying forever in Lebanon and have already forgotten about Palestine without running things in this country.
Now that the tide has turned in the Arab world in favor of democratic change, Israel and the Americans fear a rise in genuine popular anti-Israel sentiment. Therefore, it makes sense to undertake a new destabilization, at least in the Syrian-Lebanese corner, by giving Assad a chance to survive the revolution. How do you do this? Let Israel take some action to give the butcher in Damascus a casus belli and tell his people that he needs to stay in power because the Israeli "enemy" is attacking Iran and we could be next....
No one want a nuclear Iran and an attack on Iran is a welcome move. But Israel could drop a couple of well-targeted, much smaller bombs onto nearby Damascus, and bring the Assad Baath regime down. In parallel with a surgical strike on Iran, Israel could kill three birds with one stone: A nuclear Iran, a dictator in Syria, and the Hezbollah dogs in Lebanon. Not bad. But is this really what Israel wants?